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Tinubu’s Year of Unstable Policies

April/May 2024Nigeria
Tinubu

Nigeria’s President Bola Ahmed Tinubu at the 63rd-anniversary of Benin’s accession to national and international sovereignty, Boulevard de la Marina, Benin, 2023. PRÉSIDENCE DE LA RÉPUBLIQUE DU BÉNIN / FLICKR. Collage by The Republic.

the ministry of POLITICAL AFFAIRS

Tinubu’s Year of Unstable Policies

In its first year, the Tinubu administration has been characterized by hasty decisions and haphazardly thought policies, a situation that has greatly stalled Nigeria’s progress.
Tinubu

Nigeria’s President Bola Ahmed Tinubu at the 63rd-anniversary of Benin’s accession to national and international sovereignty, Boulevard de la Marina, Benin, 2023. PRÉSIDENCE DE LA RÉPUBLIQUE DU BÉNIN / FLICKR. Collage by The Republic.

the ministry of POLITICAL AFFAIRS

Tinubu’s Year of Unstable Policies

In its first year, the Tinubu administration has been characterized by hasty decisions and haphazardly thought policies, a situation that has greatly stalled Nigeria’s progress.

On May 29 2023, while thousands of Nigerians trooped to Eagle Square in Abuja to witness the transfer of democratic power from Muhammadu Buhari to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and millions more watched on television, President Tinubu unexpectedly announced the immediate removal of fuel subsidies. His announcement sent Nigeria into chaos. Filling stations, unprepared for this development, initially shut down their operations, refusing to sell while long fuel queues quickly emerged across the nation. Many, and I was one of them, were hoping that the old price of petrol which stood at N200 per litre at the time would still be sustained until old stocks had been sold out. We could not have been more wrong. By evening, the official price of petrol had increased to N500. Those who could not stay on the long queues bought at black market rates of over N1,000. With high demand and constrained supply, fuel became scarce. Many Nigerians did not expect the Tinubu administration would start this way. Even Tinubu’s die-hard supporters were shocked by the sudden fuel subsidy removal. Even though the removal was expected due to fuel subsidies not being included in the other half of the 2024 budget, no one predicted the subsidy would be removed completely, or within the first few minutes of Tinubu’s inauguration.

The fuel subsidy removal sent the prices of commodities, especially food, skyrocketing due to an increase in the price of logistics, running costs for alternative energy for businesses and reduced disposable income. According to the Stanbic IBTC Purchasing Manager Index, the subsidy removal crippled the spending power of individuals and companies in June 2023. The index highlighted that Nigerians spent N3.05 trillion less on food and other household consumption in the first half of 2023. Since the fuel subsidy removal, the price of commodities has continued to rise. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria’s annual inflation rate rose to 31.70 per cent in February 2024 from 29.90 per cent in January 2024. 

Perhaps to address this economic problem, the Tinubu government without any formal announcement quietly returned to paying subsidy. During the Stanbic IBTC Energy and Infrastructure Breakfast session held in Lagos in March 2024, the chief executive officer of Rainoil, Gabriel Ogbechie, put the government’s current fuel subsidy payments at N600 billion monthly. A former Bauchi State governor, Isa Yuguda, also confirmed the return of subsidy payments claiming the payments were made to reduce the pain of Nigerians. This raises the question: Why was fuel subsidy removed in the first place if it would be returned months after? While the answer to this may not be readily available, one could argue that it was either a badly thought-out decision (looking at how it has turned out) or that no thought was given to the removal’s potential impacts when Tinubu made his announcement one year ago. Such indecisiveness regarding critical decisions has defined the Tinubu administration in the past year and are a far cry from what is expected of someone who had courted the presidency for as long as Tinubu had.

ÈMI LÓKÀN

In June 2022, while speaking with Ogun State All Progressives Congress (APC) national delegates, Tinubu gave his now infamous (or famous depending on who is looking at it) Èmi Lókàn speech. Within his long-winded rant was the chest-beating declaration that he made Buhari president in 2015 after Buhari had tried and failed to win the presidential election three times. Tinubu announced to everyone at the gathering that after having served his political mentees, it was now time for his turn to lead. 

Tinubu went down memory lane, explaining that he was supposed to be Buhari’s running mate ahead of the 2015 election, but he was rejected following reservations from some party members. He had patiently waited for Buhari’s eight-year two-term administration to end before seeking to mount the presidential podium himself. It was a statement that reverberated through Nigeria’s political sphere and generated several reactions. While some, like a former secretary of the government of the federation, Babachir Lawal, disagreed with Tinubu on his claim of making Buhari president, Buhari himself had singled out Tinubu for praise after he won his re-election in 2019.

Those who have keenly followed Nigeria’s political trajectory would know that Tinubu’s presidential ambition did not start in June 2022 when he stood in front of APC delegates to remind them that it was his turn. It did not start when he formally declared his presidential bid following his meeting with Buhari in January 2022. One can go as far as to say Tinubu’s plot to run for the Nigerian presidency began after his two-term administration as governor of Lagos State ended in 2007. While some of his former colleagues whose two-term administrations ended at the same period as his were quick to rush to the Senate, Tinubu stayed behind in Lagos to build his base in what can now be described as a political master stroke. Over time, while former governors who went to the Senate immediately after their administrations ended, like George Akume and Godswill Akpabio of Benue and Akwa Ibom respectively, struggled to hold on to their political bases, Tinubu cemented his hold on the Action Congress of Nigeria (CAN) and grew the party, not minding ‘giving’ his party’s presidential ticket to Atiku Abubakar and Nuhu Ribadu in 2007 and 2011 respectively.

Following the merger between ACN, the Congress for Progressive Change, the All Nigeria Peoples Party and a breakaway faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance that led to the emergence of APC in 2013, Tinubu claimed he was offered the vice presidential candidate role by Buhari but he refused. He said:

There came a time during the course of the events when our Presidential candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari offered the vice presidential slot to me. Being a normal human being, I was deeply moved and honoured that he would consider me for the position. Being a patriot, I had to weigh my potential candidacy in all of its dimensions.

However, Tinubu declined the offer and, instead, recommended Yemi Osinbajo, who had served as his commissioner for justice when he was governor in Lagos. In January 2022, when Tinubu declared his interest in running for the presidency, he admitted that it had been a lifelong ambition. Speaking outside of the state house where he was asked by journalists what Buhari’s response to his presidential interest had been, Tinubu said: ‘He is a democrat. He didn’t ask me to stop. He didn’t ask me not to attempt and pursue my ambition, it is a lifelong ambition.’

One year into his presidential administration, one wonders how prepared Tinubu was for this ‘lifelong ambition’ as he has continually reversed key policy decisions. Beyond the rising insecurity, persistent food inflation, weakening naira, and other myriads of issues confronting the Tinubu administration, what has stood out is the seemingly unpreparedness of the president. Key decisions don’t seem to have passed through proper deliberation before being implemented, which has led to embarrassing results with the potential to undermine the confidence of stakeholders.

BOBRISKY: A PROBLEMATIC FAVE

Despite frequent online harassment, Bobrisky has avoided public confrontation with state authorities. Akin to numerous affluent and socially elevated LGBTQ+ Nigerians, her wealth and social standing provide insulation from the worst effects of homophobia and discrimination. This buffer makes it notably simpler for her to navigate spaces permeated by homophobia and transphobia. Bobrisky, like others in her social and financial class, does not hesitate in flaunting her privilege, evident in her stance on oppressive policies. She unapologetically embraces sexism and misogyny while also endorsing colourism and patriarchal beauty standards. Often, she remains conspicuously silent on political matters, including those about the plight of queer individuals in Nigeria.  

There are troubling instances where she actively appears to endorse homophobic violence against members of the LGBTQ+ community. A recent and particularly contentious example of this was her controversial statement regarding the arrest of 67 men suspected of being gay for allegedly participating in a same-sex wedding ceremony. Bobrisky asserted that the individuals arrested deserve the treatment they received for failing to abide by Nigeria’s anti-gay laws. 

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BUNGLED NOMINATIONS

On 02 August 2023, President Tinubu announced his ministerial nominee list. Among them was Maryam Shettima Ibrahim from Kano State. Two days later, while she was at the Senate waiting for her screening, her nomination was withdrawn without any official reason provided to Nigerians. Ibrahim was apparently unaware until news filtered in while she was awaiting her screening exercise. It came as a surprise to many Nigerians considering it took two months for the president to come up with his ministerial nominee list.

However, that mystery was solved when former governor of Kano State and current APC chairman, Abdullahi Ganduje, admitted in an August 2023 interview on Freedom Radio that he spoke with the president to remove Ibrahim. He said:

Clearly, I told him, I don’t know who she is. He asked if there was a need to replace her, and I answered in the affirmative. Because these kinds of positions need someone with integrity, the person must also understand the job, and thirdly, what role did the person play in the formation of the government. So if you look at these qualities, we were the ones that needed to be consulted for any appointments coming from Kano State.

In October 2023, the Tinubu administration announced that it revoked the nomination of Imam Kashim Imam as the chairman of the board of directors of the Federal Roads Maintenance Agency. This followed criticism, especially on social media over his nomination as the twenty-four-year-old fresh graduate did not seem to have the requisite knowledge or experience to manage the agency. This raised concerns about how his nomination came to be in the first place considering the magnitude of the agency he was going to be entrusted with.

The best example of the Tinubu administration’s focus on politics instead of policy might be the reported withdrawal of Ruby Onwudiwe’s nomination as a member of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s board following objection by APC leadership. Onwudiwe’s name was sent to the Senate for confirmation in March 2024. However, it soon emerged that she had actively supported the presidential bid of Labour Party’s Peter Obi. This revelation reportedly spurred the APC leadership to reject her nomination.

A PERFECT SCAPE GOAT

The recent arrest of Bobrisky for allegedly defacing the naira buttresses my point on the complexity of protection through social status. On 3 April 2024, Bobrisky was abruptly removed from her residence by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and detained. She was later charged under section 21(1) of the Central Bank Act, 2007, for alleged tampering with the Nigerian currency issued by the Central Bank of Nigeria. The evidence cited for this accusation included instances of her publicly dispersing money at various events, some dating as far back as 2022. In examining Bobrisky’s case, she is clearly being used as a scapegoat and convenient target for authorities to demonstrate a tough stance against perceived moral transgressions.  

In a stark reminder of events from 2022, Muda Lawal Ulnar, representing Toro Federal Constituency in Bauchi State, introduced a bill aimed at amending the Same Sex Marriage Prohibition Act (SSMPA) to outlaw cross-dressing in Nigeria. This proposed legislation, currently undergoing its first reading in the House of Representatives, defines ‘cross-dressing’ as wearing clothes typically associated with the opposite gender. The bill extends culpability for cross-dressing even to private settings, albeit with exceptions for lawful public entertainment. It suggests a six-month prison sentence or a fine of five hundred thousand naira for offenders. 

While the state has made various attempts in the past to regulate gender expression, there remains a noticeable absence of robust legislation specifically targeting trans individuals. As Nigerians await the readings on the proposed anti-crossdressing bill, LGBTQ+ activists continue to voice their dissent through protests. However, in light of its delay, there is concern that authorities may seek alternative legal avenues to perpetuate violence against LGBTQ+ Nigerians. 

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DIRECTIONLESS ECONOMIC DECISIONS

Before being elected president, Tinubu promised to change the economic fortune of Nigeria using Lagos where he governed for eight years as a reference. One would have expected him to hit the ground running in this area especially as his predecessor’s scorecard in managing the economy was generally adjudged a failure by major media. In one year of Tinubu’s administration, not only has he failed to fare better than Buhari but, worse, he also seems to be running a trial-and-error model. 

With the naira in freefall, the government recently went after cryptocurrency exchange company, Binance, blaming it for Nigeria’s currency decline. After inviting its executives, Tigran Gambaryan and Nadeem Anjarwalla, to a meeting in Nigeria, they were arrested. While Anjarwalla eventually fled the country, Gambaryan has been charged to court in what Binance has described as a dangerous precedent. This is similar to the playbook adopted by the Buhari administration where the government went after Bureau de Change operators, blaming them for the fall of the naira. In May 2024, the naira was declared the worst-performing currency by Bloomberg after being crowned the best performing currency one month earlier. Since President Tinubu floated the naira in June 2023, the currency has continued to fluctuate.

The Tinubu administration is not helping the economy with its decision-making. In February 2024, the government announced a mandatory annual levy for organizations employing expatriate workers, requiring them to pay $15,000 for a director and $10,000 for other employees. While their intention was to encourage foreign companies operating in Nigeria to employ Nigerians, experts noted that it could deter foreign investment in a country that has in the past year seen several foreign companies exit. In an interview with Leadership, the chief executive of the Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, warned that not only was the levy bad for investment it could also lead to reciprocity, which could affect Nigerians in the diaspora. One week after the policy was announced, the government suspended it.

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THE FALLACY OF CLASS MOBILITY

The introduction of a 0.5 per cent cybersecurity levy on electronic bank transfers on 06 May 2024 by the CBN was met with condemnation by Nigerians who felt it was an excessive fee, considering the number of existing bank charges Nigerian bank account owners face. These charges include account maintenance fee which is deducted quarterly or annually depending on the bank, an ATM withdrawal fee, which is charged after a card is used more than three times at another bank’s ATM; electronic transfer fees; and a N50 stamp duty for deposits above N10,000.

Stakeholders in the tax sector cautioned against policies that could further impoverish Nigerians. Speaking at the 26th annual tax conference of the Chartered Institutes of Taxation of Nigeria on 14 May, a professor of Law at the University of Lagos, Abiola Sanni, condemned the cybersecurity levy. ‘We cannot start a culture today and expect it to evolve tomorrow, we must be patient,’ he said. ‘We cannot think that we will make N3trillion the way the promoters of cybersecurity levy have said. It is not possible unless we want to be draining the blood of the people.’ Following mounting pressure from Nigerians, the CBN announced the suspension of the levy.

Some of President Tinubu’s supporters have commended him for his willingness to withdraw unpopular policies. The governor of Cross Rivers State, Bassey Otu described him as a listening president. The special adviser on information and strategy to the president, Bayo Onanuga said Tinubu ‘listens to Nigerians and feels the pulse of the people all the time.’

Experts, however, have argued that the Tinubu administration’s unpredictable approach to policymaking could introduce policy uncertainty making it difficult for Nigerians to make economic decisions. Jerrywright Ukwu, a policy expert based in Abuja, told me that the Tinubu administration has, so far, not acted in a way that engenders confidence. He added that political and investment decisions by stakeholders cannot be implemented because no one knows which policy will stick or which will be rescinded. According to Ukwu:

Foreign investors make decisions based on stability which is why you will hardly see any investment during an election year. International diplomacy is also sustained or strained based on stability in policies. The Tinubu government has been making decisions that are not well thought-out which has resulted in withdrawals and suspension leaving one to wonder how those decisions were made in the first place. The global community will find it difficult to get into bilateral agreements with Nigeria due to fear of Nigeria going back on these agreements. It has been a dangerous trend in the past year which the president needs to look at critically. No decision is better than a suspended decision.

While it is just one year into the Tinubu administration, the signs so far are not looking good. This is not helped by the haphazardly thought-out policies and decisions that have emanated from Aso Rock. Failure to create confidence in the minds of the citizens and political stakeholders, in general, has only kept Nigeria’s growth at a standstill⎈

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