Habiba Daggash argues that climate change is a threat multiplier which could disrupt all sectors of the African economy. Consequently, she says, ‘it is essential for all economic planning to consider climate change impacts so development strategies and infrastructure investment can be designed to be resilient to both climate impacts and socioeconomic consequences of climate action.’
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In the weeks heading into 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference or ‘COP27’, the conference was lauded as an ‘African COP’—a COP where Africa’s climate issues would finally be prioritized and addressed. However, COP27 failed to deliver for the continent, as was hoped. Agreements secured on key priority items for Africa, including climate financing and institutionalizing support for loss and damage, fell below the mark.
Chemical engineer, energy researcher and scholar, Habiba Daggash emphasizes that an African outlook on climate change exists, and continues to evolve. Rather than relying on international forums such as COP which consistently fall prey to the prevailing geopolitics of the day, Daggash argues that African countries should prioritize climate adaptation in national budgets, account for climate change impacts as well as the socioeconomic consequences of climate action in their economic planning, and implement adaptation measures across all sectors of the economy.
In the following conversation, we spoke to Daggash about the need for African governments to prioritize research to understand climate change impacts, invest in early warning systems, implement adaptation measures to limit suffering from climate impacts, invest in capacity-building for policymakers, and secure adequate financing for climate action.
ELIZABETH ABATI
Prior to the start of the conference, COP27 was lauded as an ‘African COP’? Do you think that COP27 lived up to this promise?
HABIBA DAGGASH
I don’t think COP27 delivered for the continent, as was hoped. Before the conference, there were three key outcomes that African countries sought. First, the African Group of Negotiators (AGN) wanted wealthy nations to deliver on the $100 billion annual climate finance they committed to at COP21 in Paris. The OECD has claimed that it provided up to $80 billion in 2019, but this figure has been challenged repeatedly, most recently by an Oxfam report that estimates it to be $20 billion.
Additionally, African countries complained that most of this finance was concessional loans instead of grants, which added to already existing debt burdens. Rich nations did little to cover this gap at COP27, with only relatively paltry sums (in the millions, not billions) committed to climate mitigation and adaptation in low-income countries. The failure has fomented distrust between low- and high-income countries, with the latter seen as paying only lip service to climate change. Furthermore, countries like the US opposed being held liable for their historical emissions.
Secondly, African leaders wanted more autonomy in determining their energy transition pathways in retaliation to policies by wealthy nations and multilateral development institutions to stop funding fossil fuel projects abroad. The decision text from the conference did not call for a total phaseout of fossil fuels, but this is just language to protect the decision of fossil fuel-dependent economies of the West. In the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine conflict that has disrupted global energy markets, many countries have prioritized energy security over climate change and increased consumption of dirty fuels such as coal.
Finally, the continent wanted to institutionalize support for ‘loss and damage,’ which is a mechanism for richer countries to compensate countries already impacted by climate change impacts. There was some success as a loss and damage fund was established in Sharm El Sheikh, but, as always, the challenge is in securing money for that fund and making it accessible to countries that need it the most. Similar funds such as the Green Climate Fund and Global Environment Facility have not succeeded in supporting widespread climate action in the developing world.
ELIZABETH ABATI
Are international conferences like COP27 the best forums to discuss Africa’s climate priorities? Should we be convening regionally and relying on regional CSOs and think tanks instead?
HABIBA DAGGASH
No. The conference of parties (COPs) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change (UNFCCC) consistently falls prey to the prevailing geopolitics of the day. Few countries with immense economic and political power often dictate decisions and prevent effective climate action from being implemented. Additionally, rich countries have shown little interest in mobilizing the scale of financing needed to support climate change mitigation and adaptation in developing countries, despite their consistent rhetoric asking poorer countries to ‘leapfrog’ carbon-intensive models of development. A regional conference is likely to better understand the challenges of delivering economic development whilst addressing climate change impacts and come up with better roadmaps for addressing them.
Few countries with immense economic and political power often dictate decisions and prevent effective climate action from being implemented.
ELIZABETH ABATI
And would you say that there is an existing African ‘outlook’ on climate change? If so, what does this look like?
HABIBA DAGGASH
I think an African outlook on climate change has always existed, but it has evolved slightly over time. Perhaps a decade ago, African nations primarily viewed climate change as an issue for rich countries to deal with, given their limited understanding of its implications within their geographies. In addition, there has always been a common sentiment that other development issues, such as poverty, education and healthcare, are more urgent. However, as climate change impacts become more apparent, African countries now urgently want to take steps to limit its consequences. However, they insist that the financing for climate action must come from countries with the greatest contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, some African nations are seeing the opportunities that climate action presents. For example, southern African countries rich in critical minerals for low-carbon technologies (cobalt, lithium, manganese for example) are working to establish new mines and localize supply chains for those technologies to benefit from those economic opportunities.
ELIZABETH ABATI
Should climate change even be a priority for African countries, especially considering equally important or even more important considerations such as the need to invest in power and infrastructure, prioritize economic development, and debt servicing?
HABIBA DAGGASH
Climate change should be a priority for all African countries because it is a threat multiplier and can potentially disrupt all sectors of the economy. The physical impacts of climate change, particularly extreme weather events, can devastate countries and cause significant economic losses, as seen during the recent floods in Pakistan. Furthermore, such events lead to migration and resource competition, amongst other challenges—all of which have historically fomented social issues, especially in tense geopolitical climates. Additionally, global efforts to address climate change, such as the sustainable energy transition, will disrupt established industries and create new opportunities for innovation and enterprise. Therefore, it is essential for all economic planning to consider climate change impacts so development strategies and infrastructure investment can be designed to be resilient to both climate impacts and socioeconomic consequences of climate action.
Climate change should be a priority for all African countries because it is a threat multiplier and can potentially disrupt all sectors of the economy.
ELIZABETH ABATI
And how can African governments appropriately balance these important considerations?
HABIBA DAGGASH
There will always be trade-offs, and how to balance these considerations will be context-specific. For example, Nigeria, an oil and gas-producing country, will have to assess how much production and export it should pursue, given the expected decline in demand for those commodities. Undoubtedly, fossil fuel consumption will continue in the coming decades; however, declining demand will mean more competition for producers. As a result, Nigeria will have to compete with the lowest-cost producers (currently the middle eastern countries for market share and assess what scale of exports remains commercially viable).
Furthermore, many trade partners with African countries (especially advanced economies) are implementing climate policies that could hamper the competitiveness of carbon-intensive goods and services. This will mean African nations must reduce the emissions associated with local manufacturing, influencing the type of energy and other infrastructure they should build.
Similarly, African countries must recognize that choosing a carbon-intensive development model could lock them into stranded assets that will not be economically viable in a low-carbon world. Alternatively, it could put them on an emissions pathway that would yield devastating consequences on their natural environment. Maybe the economic growth from that development will allow the continent to adapt to a harsher climate quicker, but this will have to be seen.
ELIZABETH ABATI
There’s been rising criticism of the West and its hypocrisy on climate change and carbon emission goals. Do you think this criticism is valid?
HABIBA DAGGASH
Absolutely. Western countries consistently make decisions based on their national interest and expect African nations not to do the same. An example is Western support of a ban on financing fossil fuel projects outside their borders. However, after the Russia-Ukraine conflict disrupted natural gas supplies to Europe, the EU signed several deals for gas exports from African countries. This financing was previously not forthcoming though African nations feel gas exploration and utilization are vital to their industrialization.
It is essential for all economic planning to consider climate change impacts so development strategies and infrastructure investment can be designed to be resilient to both climate impacts and socioeconomic consequences of climate action.
ELIZABETH ABATI
What do you consider should be the top climate priorities for Africa?
HABIBA DAGGASH
Climate change adaptation, for sure. Adaptation is essentially adjusting our natural, social, or economic systems in response to climate change impacts. Examples of adaptation measures include resettling communities prone to sea-level rise or increased flood risk, designing buildings to cope with higher temperatures (lighter-coloured roofing, better ventilation, air conditioning systems), and adopting new agricultural methods as rainfall and disease vector patterns change. But, unfortunately, the climate has already changed; it has warmed by about 1.2 degrees Celsius, and the 1.5-degree limit enshrined in the Paris Agreement will likely be breached in the coming years. This means there will be irreversible climate change impacts even if mitigation action is accelerated. Therefore, Africa should begin to implement adaptation measures across all sectors of the economy to limit suffering from climate impacts.
ELIZABETH ABATI
And what kinds of policies and projects do African countries need to implement to achieve this? How do we move from rhetoric to reality?
HABIBA DAGGASH
The first thing to note is that climate impacts will vary from geography to geography, and effective adaptation measures could vary even between communities in the same geography. There are so many policies and projects needed because of the multifaceted nature of climate impacts, so I will only discuss a few. First, there is a dearth of information of how climate change will impact local ecological and socioeconomic systems. Governments need to support research to understand climate change impacts across all sectors of the economy and invest in technologies to disseminate that information through early warning systems (EWS). EWS include better meteorological monitoring and modelling capabilities, improved communication systems to reach all vulnerable populations through different media (SMS, radio) and languages, etc.
Secondly, climate change is expected to result in more frequent extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts and floods. Therefore, there will be vulnerable communities that either need to be resettled or to have their physical infrastructure adapted to cope with the impacts. Many households, even when aware of these risks, do not have the income to implement needed changes. Governments can provide incentives to households to pursue adaptation measures. For example, grants or lower taxes could be instituted for homeowners that retrofit their buildings to be climate-smart and energy-efficient. In the agriculture sector, more flood- and drought-resistant seeds need to be introduced to protect against unpredictable weather patterns.
Additionally, farmers must adopt soil, land and water management techniques that limit the impacts of extreme weather events. The decentralized nature of the many actors in the agriculture sector means that adaptation interventions are likely to be costly; procuring technology or farming inputs at such scale, and community engagement to sensitize the public on emerging challenges require immense capacity from government. Although private sector and civil society will be important in achieving this, I emphasize government interventions because adaptation projects do not have clear revenue streams that attract private capital so state support is likely to cover majority of the costs.
To move from rhetoric to reality, two major barriers have been planning and finance. Whilst climate models inform us of potential impacts of climate change, the lack of data on African countries means there is still a gap in our understanding of how climate change will directly impact our natural environment. Only investment in research will change this. Furthermore, within government, there needs to be capacity-building for policymakers to understand the challenges that climate change presents and to understand how development plans need to be adapted to address those challenges alongside other issues. In terms of financing, there needs to be more lobbying for climate adaptation finance from richer countries, multilateral institutions and the donor community, although many have been reluctant to provide the scale of support necessary. African governments also need to prioritize climate adaptation in their budgets⎈
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