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Tinubu’s Precious Frenchship

December 24/January 25Nigeria
France

Photo illustration by Dami Mojid. Ref: LAURENT BLEVENNEC / PRÉSIDENCE DE LA RÉPUBLIQUE FRANCE.

THE MINISTRY OF WORLD AFFAIRS

Tinubu’s Precious Frenchship

Amid growing anti-French sentiments in former African colonies, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s relationship with France raises the question of whether Nigeria will become Paris’s new inroad into Africa.
France

Photo illustration by Dami Mojid. Ref: LAURENT BLEVENNEC / PRÉSIDENCE DE LA RÉPUBLIQUE FRANCE.

THE MINISTRY OF WORLD AFFAIRS

Tinubu’s Precious Frenchship

Amid growing anti-French sentiments in former African colonies, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s relationship with France raises the question of whether Nigeria will become Paris’s new inroad into Africa.

Nigeria–France relations have been on a chequered trajectory from Africa’s decade of independence to the present polarized international system, characterized by the rising of the concert of medium powers. However, bilateral relations have particularly grown in the economic and cultural spheres as Nigeria emerges as France’s leading trading partner in sub-Saharan Africa, with French imports from Nigeria, at ₦2,125 billion ($1.4 billion), accounting for 11.05 per cent of Nigeria’s total exports in the first quarter of 2024. Nigeria, because of its demographic, economic, cultural and political significance with its strategic foreign policy heritage in Africa, has remained a huge stumbling block for a total French domination of its former colonies, amid Nigeria’s bid for greater regional integration. 

Nevertheless, Nigeria–France relations witnessed a flourishing boost as President Emmanuel Macron hosted an illustrious state reception for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on a three-day state visit to France in November 2024. The grand reception began with the touchdown at Orly Airport, full military honours by the elite French Republican Guard, official engagements at the historic 350-year-old French military museum, Les Invalides, a masterful military parade, and a sumptuous dinner at the iconic Palais de l’Élysée. Macron staged a flamboyant show of warmth and friendship as he sought a ‘renewal’ between Paris and Africa in his last term in charge of France as waves of military coups and growing anti-French sentiments in West and Central Africa and the Sahel lessen France’s hegemony in Africa. 

There was some strategic engagement between Nigerian and French businessmen under the auspices of the Franco-Nigerian business council and a follow-up France–Nigeria business forum. The Nigerian delegation, led by the President, was made up of high-profile business leaders such as Alhaji Aliko Dangote, Alhaji Samad Rabiu, Mr Tony Elumelu and a few state governors including Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos. Among the ministers at the engagement were Yusuf Tuggar (foreign affairs), Wale Edun (finance and coordinating minister of the economy), Jumoke Oduwole (trade and investment) and Badaru Abubakar (defence). The minister of finance represented the federal government in signing agreements collectively valued at over €300 million aimed at bolstering vital sectors of Nigeria’s economy and promoting sustainable development. The French minister of finance, Antoine Armand, co-signed on behalf of the French government while the minister of solid minerals development, Dele Alake, highlighted the sector’s potential. 

Tinubu, through his government’s 4-D foreign policy strategy, has been trying to attract foreign portfolio investments and partners to boost Nigeria’s ailing economy and reposition the country on the right track for optimal development based on his, ‘Renewed Hope Agenda’. To realize this lofty objective, rekindling diplomatic ties on the invitation of President Macron was a viable option. Tinubu affirmed Nigeria’s strong commitment to enhancing cooperation in key sectors such as food security, energy, solid minerals, education and defence during the high-profile meeting with President Macron. 

At a joint press conference, Tinubu highlighted the vast, yet largely untapped potential, within Nigeria’s agricultural sector and beckoned international investors to capitalize on Nigeria’s welcoming investment climate. On security, Tinubu noted that there was a need for collective responsibility to fight terrorism. ‘Nigeria is a partner in progress. We are ready to partner with France so that we can have security operations that will stop the challenge of migration,’ he said. 

Tinubu’s state visit to France was hugely successful, reflected in the issues discussed and the benefits accrued from the trip. Tinubu needed this engagement for Nigeria’s bid for a permanent seat at the United Nations Security Council and for collaboration to address burning regional challenges like climate change, security in the Gulf of Guinea and political instability in the Sahel. The French ambassador to Nigeria, Marc Fonbaustier, said President Macron had received no other African leader in such a manner, and of note is the fact that Nigeria is pivotal in Macron’s new policy on Africa. As France loses its hold in Francophone African countries, Macron is making political moves when it comes to French-speaking Africa’s counterparts, pitching its tent with countries where the colonial history can be overlooked, with Nigeria seemingly at the helm. Earlier, in 2024, France also forged political connections with Kenya and Rwanda, securing significant agreements on infrastructure, climate action and development. 

The geo-political manifestations of Tinubu’s visit to France ignited security worries for the neighbouring Niger Republic as Brigadier General Abdourahmane Tchiani, the military leader of Niger, claimed after the visit that Nigeria was colluding with France to destabilize the junta-led nation. Tchiani asserted that France had set up a military base in Nigeria, purportedly supplying arms to terrorist organizations operating in the Lake Chad region to incite instability in Niger. He claimed that the proposed site for a terrorist stronghold, referred to as Lakurawa, is located near a forest close to Sokoto. Nigeria refuted allegations made by Tchiani, andthe national security adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, characterized the allegations as ‘baseless’ and ‘false’. 

Similarly, the chief of defence staff, General Christopher Musa, rejected the assertions Tchiani made and dismissed any implication that Tinubu had connections to France regarding potential foreign military bases in Nigeria. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) also came to Nigeria’s defence. 

FRANCE WANING NEO-COLONIAL INFLUENCE

Chris Kwaja, an Abuja-based political analyst, sees Tinubu’s latest deals with France as a strategic partnership, noting that France’s strained relationships with the Sahelian states do not affect its relationship with Nigeria. Other analysts are less positive. Ahmed Buhari, a political affairs analyst criticized the partnership, urging caution due to the France’s colonial legacy and interventions in the Sahel. France has a long history of involvement in the region, including military intervention, skewed economic cooperation and development aid. Former West African French colonies have been grappling with poverty and insecurity, and their independence was without full sovereignty—on the condition of signing ‘colonial pacts’ that were proposed by the then French president, Charles de Gaulle. The idea was to create new republics with limited autonomy under the tutelage of France. 

Since the dawn of the second decade of the twenty-first century, French relations with Africa—tagged as predatory—have been breaking down in France’s former colonies, though countries such as Cameroon and Côte d’Ivoire still maintain some sort of partnership with France. A general questioning of its presence (military but also economic) in its former colonies is causing military and diplomatic rupture between France and several West African countries (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad being examples). Côte d’Ivoire is the latest country to sever military ties with the former colonial power, its decision driven by the desire to assert full sovereignty. In December 2024, before ceding its first military base to Chad, France had around 1,000 troops stationed in Chad. Similarly, in November, Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaya Faye called on France to close its military bases in the country and demanded an apology from France for the 1944 massacre of Senegalese troops by French forces. France’s ties with Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali have deteriorated significantly. These countries, now under military rule, have expelled French troops, severed economic and diplomatic ties with France, and formed a bloc known as the Alliance of the Sahel States. As they distance themselves from their former colonizer, they are strengthening relations with alternative partners like Turkey and Russia to tackle their economic and security challenges. 

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TINUBU: FRANCE’S RENEWED HOPE IN WEST AFRICAN TIES?

As the head of ECOWAS, Tinubu’s visit can be seen as an attempt by France to maintain some influence in West Africa amid the growing anti-French sentiment and the wave of Pan-Africanist movement in the region. Tinubu has been very strategic when it comes to France’s dwindling foothold in the region as ECOWAS has approved the withdrawal of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso from the regional bloc, the process and transition period beginning from 29 January 2025 and lasting until 29 July 2025—the time frame serving to keep ECOWAS’ doors open for diplomatic dialogue and other obligations. The Sahel, West and Central Africa have witnessed nine successful military coups since 2020. Mali set things in motion in 2020 with the first successful coup in the recent decade, and then another in 2021, along with Chad, Guinea and Sudan. In 2022, Burkina Faso had two coups; while Niger and Gabon toppled their respective governments in 2023. 

With over 2,000 troops stationed across Côte d’Ivoire, Gabon, Chad, Senegal, and Djibouti, France had heavily relied on its colonial legacy to help maintain its geopolitical foothold. Bitterness with the colonizing power has been demonstrated in protests across major cities in the region, where protesters have carried banners demanding that ‘France dégage’ (France get out).The wave of expulsions of French military and influence from former colonies in Africa reflect a deep-seated shift in geopolitics, nationalism and a growing rejection of neo-colonialism. Following the expulsion, African military juntas have increasingly turned to Russia, China and Turkey who offer diversity in relations and support, with Russian mercenaries deployed across the Sahel region. 

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Experts say France’s refusal in recent decades to let go of its colonial influence in the so-called Françafrique, a term that has since become pejorative, has been largely to blame. For instance, the CFA franc was the currency designed by France to ensure French control survived colonialism’s official demise. It is used by 14 African countries and is still printed in France. Furthermore, France’s oversized economic influence (especially in mineral extraction) and perceived undue access to political leaders, have led to widespread blame for local economic challenges. According to Tighisti Amare, deputy director of the African Programme at Chatham House (speaking to TRT Afrika): 

[The anti-France wave] has been guided, in many ways, by history and experience. The ties became less and less appealing, especially in the context of very uneven power dynamics, which made it difficult for African countries to aspire to have more sovereignty and self-determination in a manner in which they wanted to be in control of their developmental and security agenda. 

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The geopolitical reality with regards to the popular rejection of France brings to mind Sékou Touré’s philosophy, ‘We prefer freedom in poverty to opulence in slavery’. In the heat of growing anti-French sentiments, the juntas in the Sahel will likely intensify their states’ active opposition of France by ending the sophisticated scheme of scholarships, grants and defence agreements. This will likely extend to removing French as the official language and language for education, divesting from the CFA franc, and renouncing any other political agreements with France, as well as its right of first refusal on any natural resource discovered in the country. 

 In response, France might diplomatically leverage strategic allies beyond the current ECOWAS chairman, Tinubu, to Cameroon’s long-serving leader, Paul Biya, and other political leaders in Benin Republic, Togo, and then reconcile with Côte d’Ivoire, which is poised for a major transition in October 2025. The decreasing former colonies remain Macron’s lifeline alongside Tinubu⎈

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