Collage by Dami Mojid / THE REPUBLIC.
THE MINISTRY OF POLITICAL AFFAIRS
Why Do African Governments Fear Peaceful Protests?
Collage by Dami Mojid / THE REPUBLIC.
THE MINISTRY OF POLITICAL AFFAIRS
Why Do African Governments Fear Peaceful Protests?
In July 2024, Bayo Onanuga, an advisor to Nigeria’s president, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, launched another diatribe against one of the major opposition figures in Nigeria, Peter Obi. Onanuga accused Obi of partnering with supporters of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), a separatist group proscribed in Nigeria, to forcibly remove his principal. When Onanuga used the terms ‘anarchy’ and ‘civilian coup’, he was referring to calls for nationwide protests in August 2024. He was not alone. Around the same time, responding to calls for an anti-corruption demonstration at the Ugandan parliament, President Yoweri Museveni accused protesters of conniving with foreigners to cause chaos and warned them not to ‘play with fire’. More prominently, President William Ruto of Kenya denounced protesters in his country as treasonous following a violent police crackdown on demonstrators who marched on the parliament.
Clearly, the common thread in the responses from the Nigerian, Ugandan, and Kenyan governments to calls for protests is to delegitimize them by characterizing the protesters as agents of chaos and instability. On the other hand, when the main opposition party of Tanzania, Party for Democracy and Progress (commonly known as Chadema), announced it would be rallying for constitutional reforms, the regional commissioner of Dar-es-Salaam, Albert Chalamila, didn’t directly attack protesters. Chalamila simply announced that the army would be holding a sanitation exercise in the city on the same day. Nonetheless, his action was tantamount to the same purpose of delegitimizing protesters. How effectively a government discredits dissent influences its ability to justify crackdowns on its opponents (real and perceived), thereby shutting down rightful conversations on critical national issues. Fortunately, unlike other countries, the Tanzanian demonstrators enjoyed police protection, and the rally was peaceful. Markedly so, for a country where political demonstrations had been banned for six years until 2023 when President Samia Suluhu Hassan lifted her predecessor’s ban on protests as part of reconciliation strategies.
In a previous essay, I argued that harsh responses by governments to protests are a matter of shame. Those at the helm of affairs, so concerned about their public image and reputation, strive to avoid any semblance of an inability to keep citizens in check. They do not hesitate to ignore the consequences when the alternative is bowing to public pressure. Sometimes, they accede the demands of protesters, but usually only after trying and failing at the violent route. For example, it was only the day after Kenya’s June 21 attack against protesters (which saw several reportedly killed) that President Ruto finally conceded on the controversial bill that had spurred the protests in the first place. Following the killings, protesters trended the hashtag #TupataneThursday, vowing to continue demonstrations regardless. In Nigeria, President Tinubu heard the protesters ‘loud and clear’ and called for ‘dialogue’ only after demonstrations across the country took a violent turn, no thanks to police repression. Meanwhile, as calls for nationwide protests received wide publicity for weeks prior to the demonstrations, his administration and party chose instead to demonize protesters intending to assert their right to free expression.
AN ‘AFRICAN SPRING’?
Various commentators have speculated that Africa might be experiencing its own protest-led revolution, akin to the Arab Spring of the early 2010s. I am not so inclined. Among the rulers toppled during the Arab uprising, Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen had been ruling for the shortest period—20 years. Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Hosni Mubarak, and Muammar Gaddafi had respectively been the heads of state of Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya for 23, 29, and 32 years. In contrast, the presidents of Nigeria, Kenya, and Tanzania have only been in power for one, two, and three years, respectively. President Museveni of Uganda, who is in his 38th year, is the exception. It makes a difference that in the 2011 Arab uprising, frustration had been built up for a far more extended period. And if that seems to be a trivial point, more notable is that the current wave of protests is characterized by localized dynamics unique to each state. The cross-national nature of the Arab Spring agitations made it spread quickly.
Fast forward to 2024. In Kenya, it was a controversial bill to raise taxes on commodities. Nigeria is facing economic hardship owing to the removal of subsidies for petrol as well as other significant government decisions. In Uganda, the central issue was widespread corruption; the United States and United Kingdom had, earlier in the year, imposed sanctions on the speaker of the parliament, among other government officials. In DR Congo, the protesters’ grievances were directed towards neighbouring Rwanda and its suspected Western allies.
Classifying the current wave of protests as a precursor to a revolutionary uprising plays into the narrative of leaders trying to delegitimize protests. By framing the protesters as people acting out subversive intents rather than citizens exercising their democratic right to express grievances, these leaders can more easily justify harsh crackdowns and repressive measures under the guise of maintaining stability and preventing chaos. This approach not only undermines the protesters’ legitimate grievances but also diverts attention from the underlying systemic issues, like corruption, economic hardship, and inadequate governance, which sparked the demonstrations. (Not that it is wrong to demand the removal of any leader anyway.) The result would be the government dismissing specific economic and social concerns driving the demonstrations and focusing instead on nebulous threats to state stability. Not to mention that the Arab Spring has been characterized by a mixed bag of outcomes, varying from small democratic successes in some countries to civil war escalations in others. By invoking the spectre of such outcomes, these governments can rally support among segments of the population that may be fearful of upheaval, even if they are dissatisfied with the status quo.
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Elsewhere, I documented attempts by Nigeria’s ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), to delegitimize protests by comparing them with terrorist insurgencies. Yet, putting up placards and hashtags saying ‘so-and-so must go’ is typical of protests worldwide. It does not necessarily mean a violent government takeover is in the offing, despite what the government and its allies would have people believe. The protesters obviously lack the machinery to pull off violent coups, and it is only fair to conclude that people just desire a better society.
Crucially, the 2024 protests have been youth-led and primarily organic, with Tanzania being an exception to the latter. The decentralized, spontaneous nature of these movements makes them more challenging to suppress, especially when driven by the most energetic segment of the population. When protests have identifiable leaders, governments can target them through coercion, bribery, blackmail, arrests, and sometimes neutralization. Without leaders, these tactics become ineffective, leaving a repressive government with fewer options to undermine a protest. To regain leverage, it would make figureheads of prominent voices and invent leaders for the movement in order to sabotage the protest through proxy tactics. Such individuals are promptly subjected to attack through media disinformation, police harassment, spurious legal charges, and even direct violence. The aim is to create a narrative that the movement is not truly leaderless but is instead being manipulated by a hidden elite group. That is what played out when Onanuga accused Obi of sponsoring the protests. Similarly, President Ruto didn’t name names, but he made no light reference to ‘the planners, financiers, orchestrators, abetters of violence and anarchy’.
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CREATING A CLIMATE OF FEAR
Repressive governments fear protests because they fear accountability, and coating peaceful protests with violence helps them to play the longer game. Tainting protests with violence today lowers the chances that people will be more willing to demonstrate their displeasure on the streets tomorrow. While Nigeria was under military rule, for instance, the National Union of Nigerian Students prominently clashed with the government in protests that often turned bloody. Such events of gloom and doom are etched in the memories of today’s older generation, who were the youths of that era, and are wont to dissuade the current generation of youths from protests due to the fear of violence. It explains why the House of Representatives and the leading anti-corruption agency, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, issued statements directed at parents and guardians, urging them to restrain their children and wards from participating in planned protests.
Today’s youths are slowly being manipulated into associating protests with violence because governments fail at securing protesters. And they won’t do their job because it is in the interest of an unaccountable administration that the possibility of protests being peaceful is eliminated. It is more beneficial to a poor-performing government to frame protests as existential threats to the nation. To depict an outward form of strength and shift the focus away from underlying systemic issues rather than address them head-on.
Combining police harassment with the language used by repressive administrations to address protesters reveals a clear portrayal of anti-democratic sentiments and blatant attempts to undermine the legitimacy of people’s rightful claim to free association and expression. Until African governments learn to acknowledge dissent in good faith and protect their opposers during public demonstrations (which is absolutely the government’s responsibility), the dividends of democracy will never be fully realized⎈
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