A Clash of Titans

Dangote

Collage by Dami Mojid / THE REPUBLIC. Ref: FLICKR.

THE MINISTRY OF BUSINESS X THE ECONOMY

A Clash of Titans

In the world of power and influence, Bola Ahmed Tinubu rules the political arena while Aliko Dangote reigns supreme in the realm of business. What happens when these two giants clash?
Dangote

Collage by Dami Mojid / THE REPUBLIC. Ref: FLICKR.

THE MINISTRY OF BUSINESS X THE ECONOMY

A Clash of Titans

In the world of power and influence, Bola Ahmed Tinubu rules the political arena while Aliko Dangote reigns supreme in the realm of business. What happens when these two giants clash?

 ‘I always tried to move up the food chain. I started with cement and then moved to textiles and banking. When I was trading sugar, I added salt and flour so that we could make pasta and then I thought why not make the bag for it too? So we started making packaging.’ 

                                                                                — Aliko Dangote for Times Magazine 2014 

Starting his first business in 1977 with a $3,000 loan from his uncle, Aliko Dangote, the president of Dangote Group, is today the richest man in Africa and one of the richest men in the world, with an estimated net worth of around $13.4 billion. From a simple trading firm in the 1970s, Dangote has grown his business into a global conglomerate spanning multiple industries from cement to food and agriculture (sugar, flour, pasta, fertilizer) and more recently, oil and gas. As of 2023, Dangote Cement generated about $3.7 billion in revenue. Dangote Sugar Refinery remains one of the largest sugar producers in Nigeria and Africa producing over 17,000 tonnes a day and aiming for 1.5 million metric tonnes annually. While Dangote’s economic success can be attributed to his stellar business acumen, strategic investments and innovative mind, it is an open secret that his rise also comes as a result of his involvement in politics and with politicians. 

CEMENTING POLITICAL ALLIANCES

Dangote seemingly became involved in the political arena in the early 2000s, especially during Olusegun Obasanjo’s second presidential campaign in 2003. This involvement stemmed from Obasanjo’s search for new donors following his fallout with then-vice president, Atiku Abubakar. As a result, Dangote’s presence in the political landscape grew substantially. Over time, his relationship with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) strengthened, marking him as a key ally. This partnership was particularly evident during Goodluck Jonathan’s administration. In 2011, President Jonathan publicly stated that Nigeria would begin exporting cement, largely based on Dangote’s influence.  

Prior to Dangote’s involvement in the cement industry, Nigeria was one of Africa’s major cement importers, but Nigeria has now evolved into one of the top two exporters of cement and clinker. Dangote was pivotal in this transition by heavily investing in local production. He set up massive plants, like the one in Obajana, Kogi State, which is the largest cement plant in Sub-Saharan Africa, with a 16.5 million metric ton yearly capacity. By 2018, Nigeria had more cement than needed. This move boosted the economy, created jobs, and even inspired other companies like Lafarge Africa and BUA Cement to jump on the export trend. Given that Dangote was the leading cement manufacturer, this growth highlights the significant role he played in both business and politics.  

During the Muhammadu Buhari administration, an All Progressives Congress-led government, one might have expected Dangote’s relationship with the government to weaken due to his longstanding ties to the rival PDP. However, this was not the case. Within a year of Buhari’s presidency, on 4 August 2015, a delegation led by former vice president, Yemi Osinbajo, travelled to Zambia to commission a Dangote Cement plant. Dangote was hard at work cementing political alliances. 

In more recent times, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery located at the Lekki Freezone was also commissioned by the Buhari administration in May 2023. It was lauded as a significant project, mainly for its potential to lessen Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products—ensuring that Nigeria can meet domestic needs and potentially export the surplus. 

Government policies, contracts and tax incentives have been crucial to Dangote’s success. During Obasanjo’s administration, Dangote enjoyed exclusive import rights to cement, sugar and rice, the income tax breaks and deductibles in the Jonathan era and the road infrastructure tax credit scheme under Buhari. Additionally, the Dangote Group benefitted from favourable import substitution policies that prioritize locally produced goods over imported ones in order to promote economic development and promote a balance of trade. These policies, alongside backward integration in the cement industry, have given Dangote a competitive edge.  

Backward integration is a business strategy where a company expands its control over the supply chain by acquiring or establishing operations that provide the raw materials or components needed for its core business. Instead of relying on third-party suppliers, the company owns and manages the production of critical inputs. Thus, improving efficiency, lowering costs, and gaining more control over production timelines and quality. Dangote Cement implemented this backward integration strategy by making clinker, a major raw material for cement production, which the company uses and sells. Furthermore, the proximity of large limestone deposits to both the Obajana and Ibese plants help Dangote Cement reduce transportation and raw material procurement costs. 

Dangote’s access to capital, both from Nigerian and international banks, has also been key, with figures like Godwin Emefiele, the former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), playing a significant role in financing projects such as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. Dangote’s strategic alliances with government bodies, granting him access to land and infrastructure, combined with his companies’ positive impact on the Nigerian economy, have been central to his continued success.  

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THE CLASH OF TITANS

‘The people who are supposed to invest in refineries, who understand the market, are benefitting from there being no refineries because of the fuel export business.’  

                                                             — Dangote for Reuters News Agency, 2013 

Recent disagreements between Dangote and Nigeria’s oil sector authorities, with respect to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, have once again brought Dangote’s relationship with politics to the fore as authorities have levelled claims of high operational demand and questionable product standard (i.e. subpar petroleum) at Dangote. Understanding that strong government relationships have been a key pillar of Dangote’s success, one might wonder what is behind the recent tussle. The answer lies not just in visible enemies, but also in hidden ones.  

There is little evidence of a direct rift between President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Dangote; but there is also no clear indication that they have been close allies. Their paths only began to significantly cross (at least to the public) after Tinubu’s 2023 presidential victory, when Dangote, much like he had done with previous administrations, sought to establish favourable relations. 

Given the lack of prior known conflict between them, one must examine recent events for possible sources of friction. Before the election, Nigeria experienced a naira shortage due to the CBN’s naira redesign policy, implemented by Emefiele. As is well-known, the CBN under Emefiele played a crucial role in financing Dangote’s refinery. Tinubu, however, saw the naira redesign and consequent cash shortage as a plot to undermine his presidential campaign and publicly criticized the CBN’s actions.  

When Tinubu became president, he suspended Emefiele from his position as CBN governor. Thus, it is not far-fetched to think that this tension may have extended to Dangote, given his ties to the former CBN governor. In the complex world of politics and business, the alliances one forms, and the actions of those allies, can have far-reaching consequences. 

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A TAX POLICY PERSPECTIVE

President Tinubu, often referred to by various monikers, including the ‘tax master’, has made his fiscal approach evident from the early days of his presidency. His administration is reportedly considering unconventional methods to boost government revenue, such as employing area boys for tax collection, according to Taiwo Oyedele, the chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy. Oyedele also confirmed the administration’s intention to review and potentially reduce tax waivers.  

In contrast, Dangote has long benefited from generous tax incentives and waivers across several administrations. These tax breaks have sparked debate, with proponents such as Dr Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprises, arguing that they help attract foreign investment and grow the economy. While others, like Professor Uche Nwogwugwu Nnamdi, a professor of economics at Nnamdi Azikiwe University, argue that such incentives stifle competition, particularly for small and medium enterprises. For instance, Dangote has faced criticism over his business practices, notably following his acquisition of the Benue Cement Company (BCC). The acquisition reduced the number of independent cement producers, allowing Dangote Cement to dominate the market and limit competition. This dominance led to public outcry and government investigations over alleged price manipulation, as the company could influence prices with little resistance. 

Thus, it is unclear whether Dangote will continue to enjoy the same incentives he has become accustomed to. Particularly, under a president with a reputation for stringent tax policies, likely influenced by his background in accountancy and his tenure as governor of Lagos. 

THE INVISIBLE HAND OF THE OIL CABAL

Another avenue of tension between Dangote and Tinubu does not stem solely from Tinubu, but from what can be described as the ‘oil cabal’—a group of influential international and domestic stakeholders who dominate Nigeria’s oil sector. These are the entities that profit from and seek to maintain the status quo of the oil industry, as it serves their interests. Operating largely behind the scenes and out of public view, they manipulate supply and demand to drive up prices—a time-honoured strategy in business. The entrance of a significant player like Dangote disrupts this balance by introducing competition, which threatens their grip on the market. 

The fuel subsidy removal provides a clear example of how the cabal operates. Without the subsidy, petroleum companies can set their own prices, thus controlling the demand and supply, effectively monopolizing the market. However, with Dangote’s refinery entering the picture, a substantial portion of oil and gas activities will likely shift to him, undermining the cabal’s control. 

The oil cabal has employed various tactics to discredit Dangote. Most notable are the allegations that the Dangote Refinery churns out inferior product. On Thursday 18 July, while speaking with journalists from the State House, Farouk Ahmed, the CEO of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, claimed that while the West African Standard for sulphur content level, a key pollutant, is 50 parts per million, Dangote Refinery’s product reaches as high as 650 to 1200 parts per million, potentially leading to increased emissions and reduced engine performance.  

Additionally, Ahmed alleged that the Dangote refinery will create a monopoly. These accusations are questionable as they seek to shield the Nigerian government from accountability. Despite the prior existence of four refineries (Warri, new Port Harcourt, old Port Harcourt and Kaduna), the government has failed to take significant action to expand or improve them.  

However, it is indeed true that the Dangote Group has exhibited monopolistic traits and tendencies in industries like cement and foodstuff, with the BCC debacle serving as a good example. Additionally, in 2020, Abdul Samad Rabiu, the chairman of Dangote Group rival, BUA Group publicly accused Dangote Group of exhibiting monopolistic tendencies. Rabiu claimed that Dangote exerted pressure on the Nigerian government to shut down BUA’s operations in the Okpella region of Edo State and pushed for regulatory actions aimed at restricting BUA Group’s production and sales.  

Dangote refuted these allegations, emphasizing that the industry had very few players with Lafarge Cement being the only other manufacturer when Dangote Cement started. He further asserted his commitment to fostering competition and maintaining a fair and equitable playing field within the industry. Dangote also highlighted his decision to withdraw from entering the steel industry as a demonstration of his belief in fair competition. 

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THE IMPLICATIONS AND THE WAY FORWARD

 As political power and economic success represent two distinct sides of the same coin, one might expect that there would be a robust history of past meetings between Tinubu and Dangote. However, public knowledge suggests that their paths have primarily converged due to the development of the Dangote Refinery. 

Although the Tinubu administration is concerned about the potential monopolistic power that Dangote could wield in the oil sector—similar to his dominance in the cement and food industries—it recognizes the significant advantages of having a local refinery in operation. 

A functional refinery would greatly reduce Nigeria’s reliance on imports, create thousands of jobs, and strengthen the value of the naira. Additionally, with the Dangote refinery’s capacity to produce up to 650,000 barrels per day, Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves would be bolstered as refined petroleum imports would reduce demand for foreign exchange. Thus, marking the first time in over 28 years that the country would be self-sufficient in petrol production.  

Given the current economic challenges, including skyrocketing fuel prices between 850 to 1,400 per litre, increasing living costs, and a declining standard of living, the benefits of the refinery’s success appear to far outweigh any potential downsides. In this critical moment, the success of Dangote’s refinery offers a lifeline to a struggling government, making it imperative that any differences between these two major figures be set aside for the collective progress of Nigeria

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