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Ondo 2024 Governorship Election and the Hallmarks of a Recessive Democracy

NigeriaOctober/November 2024
Ondo

Photo illustration by Ezinne Osueke / THE REPUBLIC. Ref: ONDO STATE GOVERNMENT.

THE MINISTRY OF POLITICAL AFFAIRS

Ondo 2024 Governorship Election and the Hallmarks of a Recessive Democracy

The low participation of electorates in the Ondo State election points to a serious problem of voter apathy and raises the question of the status and future of Nigeria’s evolving democracy.
Ondo

Photo illustration by Ezinne Osueke / THE REPUBLIC. Ref: ONDO STATE GOVERNMENT.

THE MINISTRY OF POLITICAL AFFAIRS

Ondo 2024 Governorship Election and the Hallmarks of a Recessive Democracy

The low participation of electorates in the Ondo State election points to a serious problem of voter apathy and raises the question of the status and future of Nigeria’s evolving democracy.

Nigeria’s second and final off-cycle governorship election in 2024 was concluded on Sunday, 17 November, with the return of the incumbent governor, Lucky Aiyedatiwa as the winner of the election. Aiyedatiwa, of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) had assumed the governorship office a year ago when, as deputy governor, he was next in line following the death of his boss and predecessor, Governor Rotimi Akeredolu. That elevation to the top job put paid to the permutations and planning of the APC primary, especially since the deputy governor’s stature as the next in line was far from certain. In fact, he was the subject of an impeachment proceeding that required intervention from President Bola Tinubu. But, in the end, the state’s party structure fell in line after his assumption of the top job and his march to victory was relatively processional in the end.

The race had devolved into a contest between two former deputy governors. Agboola Ajayi, the nominee of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), had been Akeredolu’s deputy during his first term (2016 – 2020) but had fallen out with him and later contested against his boss in 2020 on the platform of Zenith Labour Party. Ajayi had been a former PDP politician, elected as local government chairman in 2004 and to the federal House of Representatives in 2007 for one term, and his defection ahead of the 2016 elections had helped shore up necessary support for Akeredolu, who was running for a first term aiming to beat the choice of an incumbent PDP government. After falling out with Akeredolu in 2020, Agboola returned to PDP before moving again to contest the governorship. Despite a strong background in state politics, Agboola’s second bid for the state’s top job has failed again.

As with all elections, several factors were key in determining the outcome of the Ondo State contest and the result. In the aftermath of a contentious and divisive Edo governorship election earlier in September, there is the temptation to appreciate the relative smoothness with which Ondo was conducted and the lack of ‘dramatic’ incidents. But the election appears to have cemented certain elements of Nigeria’s democratic process—for better or worse.

VOTER FATIGUE CREEPS IN

Ondo’s election continued a trend of low voter turnout and increased voter apathy. For the first time since the return to democracy in 1999, the state’s election turnout was less than 30 per cent, dropping to 24.8 per cent at the final count. Historically, governorship elections and especially off-cycle contests, see voters turn out in larger numbers than the presidential poll. This is often because citizens have a stronger affinity and perhaps familiarity with state-level contests than national ones.

In 2023, only 16.4 per cent of Bayelsa voters came out in the presidential election, versus 27.4 per cent in the November off-cycle election that returned Douye Diri as governor. Similarly, there was a 9.6 per cent swing from 16.4 per cent of Imo voters taking part in the February general election versus 29.4 per cent who voted in November. The biggest swing came in Kogi, with 41 per cent voting in the November off-cycle election, a marked improvement on the 24.6 per cent who voted in the general election.

Ondo’s result contrasts with established precedence. Both Imo and Bayelsa saw improved voter turnout despite re-electing an incumbent governor, a trend that is often attributed to established politicians being able to mobilize support effectively. Furthermore, the Ondo State results saw a governorship election fall below the presidential vote count. While 29.6 per cent took part in the process that declared Tinubu as president in 2023, only 24.8 per cent were reported in this election.

There are several probable reasons for this. First, while Edo was governed by a party other than that in control at the federal level, Ondo was governed by the same party at both levels. This was referenced in sentiments that the Ondo election was already determined in favour of the APC. Second, the outcome was a contest that was relatively uncompetitive because of the lack of a strong opposition. PDP fielded a nominee who had lost a senatorial race in 2023 and the governorship election four years ago. PDP’s performance in that election—losing two senate seats and winning only one of nine federal representative seats—did not show a party on the ascendancy in the state. In contrast, ahead of the Edo election, APC won two of the three senate seats—with one of them winning the governorship election—and five of seven declared federal representative seats.

Ondo also did not see any viable third-party candidate emerge, especially when one compares the expectation of Labour Party’s Olumide Akpata being strong in Edo’s election. In fact, Labour’s nominee in this election was replaced four days before the election following a court order. The lack of a strong alternative meant that many citizens saw this as a walkover. The results, which show Aiyedatiwa sweeping the results across all Local Government Areas (LGAs), could be expected if compared with recent election data.

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Nigerian elections have gone through different cycles of major issues to address. At the beginning of the Fourth Republic, there were candidate assassinations and election-day violence. By the 2007 elections, this moved towards ballot box snatching and voter intimidation. Recent elections appear to have settled on voter apathy and voter inducement.

There were many recorded instances of both APC and PDP agents engaging in vote trading in the Ondo State election. Civil society observation groups that deployed observers for the elections—such as the Centre for Democracy and Development, Youth Initiative for Advocacy, Growth, and Advancement and the National Civil Society Situation Room—reported several instances where incidents of vote trading were rife and brazen. Voters were paid from N3,000 to N10,000, with security forces also implicated in some instances where they were complicit in the process.

Voter inducement was also recorded in the Edo election and the 2023 general elections, but it is a symptom of a larger rot. Bribery and transactions remain prevalent in many party primaries and have been increasingly cited as a factor in judicial decisions. These come from a situation where socio-economic conditions remain difficult and harsh, often leading to citizens to accept paltry sums today in lieu of more sustainable reforms that might not come to fruition within a single term in office. There is a privilege in being able to eschew such approaches, but the vast majority of Nigerians are not this lucky. Failure to correct this will see future elections bought rather than sought.

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ZONING AND IDENTITY FACTORS

Regardless of any pre-election data or analysis, a major factor in any Nigerian election is zoning and where power is expected to move to in any given election. Following two terms of Ondo Central senatorial zone through Olusegun Mimiko (2009 – 2017) and the expected two terms of Ondo North through Rotimi Akeredolu (2017 – 2023), the expectation was that the next governor would come from Ondo South. Aiyedatiwa, then deputy governor, would have been expected to make a bid for the seat. PDP had even made a similar decision, which precluded two-time nominee Eyitayo Jegede from running. Both major candidates coming from the same zone all but ensured that the zone would retain the governorship.

A major campaign point was the expected length of time for whoever would assume the governorship. Agboola, who had never served as governor, could run for two terms and provide the south with a similar length of office. Conversely, Aiyedatiwa, who already took the oath of office to complete Akeredolu’s term, is limited to one more term in office following a change to the law in 2018. PDP campaigned that Aiyedatiwa’s victory would shortchange the south, a case that evidently didn’t affect the result.

The next zone in the cycle is Ondo Central, which is also the most populous zone in the state. Perhaps owing to voter fatigue, socio-economic constraints or the lack of representation in the race, the zone did not turn out to vote. Ondo Central recorded four of the five LGAs with the lowest votes in the election and had a voter turnout of 19.3 per cent, which affected the overall rate.

THE NORTH REMEMBERS

These reasons above don’t accommodate for the strong showing by Ondo North, especially in how decisive the margins were in the result. Ondo North turned out in the election, with a 31.4 per cent voter turnout and the top four LGAs with the highest voter turnout. It was also decisive in choosing APC and Aiyedatiwa, giving the ticket 81 per cent of their votes, compared to 72 per cent in Ondo South and 62 per cent in Ondo Central. 

While APC’s deputy governorship candidate is from the zone, and this could be interpreted as support for one of their own, there are two strong arguments to explain the outcome. First, Ondo North is home to strong politicians within the party, including interior minister, Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, who actively worked to ensure that the results in their areas would show the scope of their influence. Second, there appeared to be lingering resentment for previous actions by PDP’s Agboola, who dumped Akeredolu and contested against him in 2020. The PDP campaign was unable to reassure voters in Ondo North that an Agboola government would address their concerns in a way previous APC governments had.

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UNCLEAR NUMBERS

Different groups, such as traditional rulers and civil society organizations, praised the Independent National Electoral Commission for improved logistics, opening of polls and releasing key data about registered voters before the election. The information helped civil society deploy observers to high-volume polling units and allocate resources effectively.

However, as citizens listened to various officials report the vote tallies at the collation centre, there were discrepancies between the numbers recorded at the collation centres and those released before.

The disparity in electoral figures affected seven of the 18 LGAs to varying degrees. For example, while there was one fewer recorded registered voter in Akure South and ten fewer in Ile Oluji/Oke Igbo, there were 4,901 fewer registered voters announced at the collation centre in Ondo East LGA. Similarly, there were seven more in Akoko North-West and as high as 4,341 in Akoko South-West.

Allocating the difference to the runner-up, or subtracting from the winner, in any of the LGAs would not have affected the outcome of the election. Yet, in an election with finer margins and with more attention, such oversights could lay the ground for costly litigation and a delay in governance. In a country where citizens already don’t trust the election management body, it could lay the ground for even more voter apathy.

Ondo’s election could be seen in isolation. After all, it is just a state in the South West zone returning an incumbent to a final term, who will spend the next four years as a lame-duck governor as parties and politicians plot out a four-year-long campaign to succeed him. But a more apt consideration would be the long-term implications of what these trends mean for Nigeria’s democracy. Should these processes be seen as the norm, future elections would be compromised and see even more Nigerians turn off from taking part. It might provide a necessary boon for President Tinubu whose recent policy proposals, including tax reform and proposed local government autonomy, might lead to a contentious bid for re-election in 2027. Keeping loyal governors in states he carried in 2023, alongside a gain in Edo, could help negate the expected opposition that will rise. It reinforces the idea that no election is truly isolated, with outcomes and policies affecting considerations across time and location.

For the citizens of Ondo, the hope is that the attention that the state has received will lead to a conscious decision to hold the government to account and increase civic activism. Opposition parties have increasingly failed to provide credible alternatives to lingering questions around democracy. It is now important that citizens realize that, especially with growing questions around federalism in Nigeria, holding leaders to account, both during election and governance cycles, can make the difference between a failed state and a hopeful future⎈

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