Collage by Dami Mojid / THE REPUBLIC. Ref: NORTHERN BLOG / X.
THE MINISTRY OF WORLD AFFAIRS
The Curious Presence of Russian Flags in African Protests
Collage by Dami Mojid / THE REPUBLIC. Ref: NORTHERN BLOG / X.
THE MINISTRY OF WORLD AFFAIRS
The Curious Presence of Russian Flags in African Protests
For years, the existence and efficacy of the Russian Federation’s soft power have been a theme of discussions and analyses worldwide. In Africa, that Russia is admired is not in doubt. But has Moscow’s power of attraction always been strong and effective?
During the Cold War of the superpowers—the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics—the Soviet Union as an anti-colonial power partly gained influence over several African countries following the deployment of its soft power resources to the African continent: Marxist-Leninist ideology, state scholarships, and cultural centres. In late December 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed and Russia as the successor state not only discontinued the propagation of Marxism-Leninism, it also closed some of its cultural centres, causing Moscow’s soft power to diminish in the region. However, since the 2000s, contemporary Russia with great power ambitions aims, among other things, to regain its influence in Africa. To accomplish this, Moscow is employing soft power assets such as state scholarships, cultural centres and the Russian language, the Russian Orthodox Church, media outlets (RT and Sputnik), and vaccine diplomacy, to mention a few.
Since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, Russia’s soft power in Africa has been put to the test. In South Africa, for example, the perception of Russia’s economic and political influence on the country dropped in 2022. Nevertheless, the reverence and affection for Russia, or ‘Russophilia’ as some scholars call it, is a phenomenon in Africa as observed in recent demonstrations in several African countries.
FLYING THE RUSSIAN FLAG IN AFRICAN PROTESTS: A NEW TREND IN THE SAHEL REGION
Demonstration remains a centuries-old avenue by which diverse people have expressed their grievances and made their demands known to governments and institutions. In many countries today, peaceful protest is recognized as one of the fundamental rights of citizens. Though not explicitly stated, it is enshrined in their constitution in the form of freedom of peaceful assembly and association, freedom of speech, and freedom of expression and opinion. However, demonstrations over the years have taken one of three combinations: organized and peaceful, disorganized and violent, or a mix of both.
In Africa, protests have encompassed the assembly of people in central parks, squares, or stadiums; long marches on major streets and highways; the wielding of placards, banners, and tree branches; chants; raised fists; tyre burning; the use of megaphones, the waving of clean or smeared national flags, police escort; a team of medical personnel and ambulances; activists, celebrities, and influencers; online mobilization and hashtags; and on a lighter note, refreshments, and entertainment in some cases. But recently, a new trend in African demonstrations against the backdrop of twenty-first-century great power competition between the US, Russia, and China, is the waving of the Russian flag. A good place to zoom in on the map of Africa in this regard is none other than the western part of the volatile Sahel region.
In the Sahel, a semi-arid region that has experienced unabated violence of Islamic militant groups linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, the horizontal white, blue, and red band flag of the Russian Federation has repeatedly been sighted among military coup supporters and indeed pockets of anti-French and anti-government demonstrations. On 27 May 2021, in Mali’s capital, Bamako, protesters in support of coup leader, Colonel Assimi Goïta, and against France, waved the Russian flag. In French-speaking Burkina Faso, supporters of 24 January 2022 coup d’état, some of whom took to the streets of the state capital, Ouagadougou, to celebrate the military takeover, were seen holding the Russian flag. Again, following the second military coup on 30 September 2022, Burkinabés were on the streets of Ouagadougou where they waved the Russian flag in early October, this time around, in protest against their former colonial ruler, France, and to an extent the sub-regional organization—the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). In neighbouring Niger Republic, also a former French colony, a few tailors in the capital, Niamey, experienced an increase in demand for the Russian flag after the democratically elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, was dislodged on 26 July 2023 by men in military fatigue. All three Sahelian countries, which in a joint statement announced their membership withdrawal from ECOWAS on 28 January 2024, had their first summit of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) on 6 July 2024 in Niamey, Niger Republic. (The AES was formed on 16 September 2023 in response to the insecurity situation in the Sahel region.)
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NIGERIA’S #ENDBADGOVERNANCE PROTESTS: THE RUSSIAN FLAG INCIDENT
Since the 2010s, the Federal Republic of Nigeria has experienced a series of protests two of which stand out. The first was #OccupyNigeria in 2012 owing to the Goodluck Jonathan administration’s removal of fuel subsidy which resulted in fuel price hike. The second was the #EndSARS protest in 2020 induced by the brutality of the Nigeria Police Force’s Special Anti-Robbery Squad under the Muhammadu Buhari administration. Drawing inspiration from the success recorded by Kenyan protesters who compelled President William Ruto’s government to jettison the controversial financial bill on tax increase, following President Bola Tinubu’s fuel subsidy removal and floating of the naira policies (which exacerbated food inflation and the rising cost of living in Nigeria), Nigerians held nationwide protests from 1 to 10 August 2024 with the hashtag #EndBadGovernance. During the ten days of rage, disgruntled protesters not only voiced the economic hardship and hunger in the land some also clamoured for a change of government through the unconstitutional means of a coup d’état in Africa’s largest democracy.
While the protests were relatively peaceful in the southern part of Nigeria, they turned violent in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, and some parts of the country. In northwest Nigeria, the looting and destruction of properties by miscreants was reported in Kano State, the second-largest city in the country, which made the Kano State government declare a curfew. Amid the nationwide protests, arrests made by the Nigerian police, and the Department of State Services included demonstrators, tailors in Kano State, and surprisingly seven Polish nationals for allegedly flying the Russian flag in Kano. Available data on the human and economic costs of the nationwide protests has not been pleasant. In the ten-day protests, more than 20 people were reported dead, and the Nigerian economy lost about N500 billion a day.
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Interestingly, in northern Nigeria, some protesters in Kano and Kaduna states were seen flying the Russian flag. As a result, Nigerian chief of defence staff, General Christopher Musa, following a meeting with President Tinubu, sternly warned that the flying of any foreign flag in the country would be viewed and treated as a ‘treasonable offence’. The Russian Embassy in Abuja, on its part, was quick to respond, distancing Russia from the Russian flag-waving incident. In a statement issued on 5 August, the diplomatic post stated that neither the government of Russian president, Vladimir Putin, nor Russian officials were involved in or coordinated the act. It went on to add that the waving of the Russian flag by some Nigerian protesters were their ‘personal choices’, which do not in any way reflect the official position or policy of the Russian government.
Thus far, several explanations have been put forward for why some Nigerian protesters flew the Russian flag. One such explanation is that of international relations expert, Dr Olayinka Ajala. According to Dr Ajala, the northern part of Nigeria shares a porous border with the landlocked Niger Republic, making illegal migration a walk in the park. As a result, there is a high possibility that some of the protesters who flew the Russian flag in northern Nigeria were Nigeriens registering their displeasure on the sanctions imposed by ECOWAS (currently chaired by President Bola Tinubu) against Niger’s military junta that made Russia the security partner replacement to France and the US. Nigerian lawyer and human rights activist, Femi Falana (SAN), argued that the waving of the Russian flag in northern Nigeria was because a few elements used the protests as an opportunity to call for a military takeover in the country. Similarly, General Christopher Musa stated that the protesters who flew the Russian flag, some of whom are minors, were pushed into doing it by undisclosed sponsors. Another explanation given is that there was a mix-up of flags. In this regard, political analyst, Farooq Kperogi, argues that some of the protesters who called for a military coup while waving the Russian flag mistook it for the flag of the Nigerian Armed Forces, which has a semblance to the tricolour Russian flag.
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RUSSIAN FLAG IN NIGERIAN PROTESTS: A REFLECTION OF MOSCOW’S SOFT POWER IN AFRICA?
Politically and security-wise, Moscow has a track record of supporting the federal government of Nigeria. During the Nigerian Civil War (1967-1970), the defunct Soviet Union was the major supplier of arms used by the Nigerian Armed Forces loyal to the Federal Military Government of Major-General Yakubu Gowon against the army of breakaway Biafra. Fast forward to 2014, when the US hesitated to sell lethal weapons to Nigeria to combat the Islamic militant group, Boko Haram, over concerns of the military’s human rights abuses: Moscow without human rights conditionality, sold the required weapons to Nigeria for counterinsurgency operations under the Jonathan administration. Going by these antecedents, it did not come as a surprise that the call made by some angry Nigerian protesters for Russia to midwife the toppling of the incumbent government fell on deaf ears as the pattern of Moscow’s disposition has always been for, and not against, the federal government of Nigeria.
In the context of the #EndBadGovernance protests, the display of the Russian flag by some Nigerian demonstrators is a testament to the admiration of Russia in Africa; first, as a force to reckon with in a developing multipolar world order; and second, as a foreign power capable of bringing about a regime change in an African country. Much as opportunistic Russia could have capitalized on the flag-waving event to expand its political influence in the continent by ushering in a Russian-backed military junta in Abuja, it desisted from intervening in the internal affairs of Nigeria, a sovereign state with a non-alignment policy.
The #EndBadGovernance protests across Nigeria have come and gone without any respite from the economic hardship in the country, which warranted another demonstration on 01 October, Nigeria’s 64th Independence Day. So far, several plausible explanations have been given as to why the Russian flag was flown in the northern part of the country. However, a question many scholars and analysts left unanswered is: Did the waving of the Russian flag by some Nigerian protesters mirror Moscow’s soft power in Africa? Though Russia, to the disappointment of some Nigerian protesters, did not come through as a ‘saviour’, the open display of the Russian flag during the #EndBadGovernance demonstrations was a reflection of the new wave of Russia’s soft power across Africa, especially in the Sahel region⎈
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