Given the context of Nigeria’s slow but undeniably steady decline on the global stage in successive administrations, Tinubu’s diplomatic strategy, at least on paper, showed a lot of promise. In December 2023, Tinubu’s administration unveiled its foreign policy strategy based on the 4Ds: Development, Democracy, Demography, and Diaspora. This doctrine was based on the broader objectives of Tinubu’s ‘Renewed Hope Agenda’, which aims to protect against external aggression, promote favourable outcomes in international engagements, and enhance Nigeria’s global standing.

Economic diplomacy has been the cornerstone of Tinubu’s diplomatic efforts so far. His inaugural decisions to remove the fuel subsidy and unify the exchange rate represented significant policy shifts from the previous administration. These measures were ostensibly aimed at stabilizing Nigeria’s economy and aligning with the recommendations of Bretton Woods institutions such as the IMF to attract foreign investments. Speaking to me, Patrick Adewumi, a foreign policy researcher, emphasized that Tinubu’s administration has taken proactive steps in attracting foreign direct investment. He highlighted that ‘the president’s administration has attracted about $30 billion in foreign directive investment.’ He also acknowledged the timeline for executing these investments, noting that many Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) have ‘two, three, four-year timeline execution.’ This reflects a strategic effort to position Nigeria as an attractive destination for industrialization and a greener economy.

However, Adewumi pointed out a critical challenge: Nigeria, he said, ‘has been very active in signing treaties and MOUs and engaging at international levels. But how do we translate this into a better positioning for Nigeria?’ This underscores the essential need to not only secure international agreements but also to ensure their effective implementation, thereby translating diplomatic engagements into tangible benefits for Nigeria’s economic development. This point becomes stark when considering the domestic realities of Nigerian citizens, partly due to the Tinubu administration’s domestic policies. The poverty level in the country has gone up; the country is also experiencing falling purchasing power among citizens and heightened food inflation. Similarly, at least seven well-established multinational companies have exited Nigeria due to unfavourable conditions, casting doubt on the efficacy of Tinubu’s economic diplomacy. One prominent example was the exit of Procter and Gamble, who decided to leave Nigeria after 30 years, citing a challenging business environment and unfavourable macro-economic conditions. Additionally, unforced errors, such as the false claim by Ajuri Ngalele (the special assistant to the president on media and publicity) about Tinubu being the first African leader to ring the NASDAQ closing bell, have distracted from substantial economic discussions and damaged credibility.

Tinubu’s foreign policies have made positive strides so far. His priorities have spurred an array of strategic diplomatic engagements on both regional and global stages. His initial diplomatic mission to Paris in June 2023 for the Summit for a New Global Financial Pact highlighted Nigeria’s urgent need for foreign investments and set a proactive tone for his administration’s international outreach. Subsequently, Tinubu’s participation in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) summit in Guinea Bissau underscored his leadership ambitions within West Africa, as he positioned himself as a pivotal regional figure. His involvement in the African Union Media Coordination meeting further demonstrated his commitment to continental collaboration. At the G20 Leaders’ Summit in India, Tinubu’s efforts culminated in securing a significant $14 billion foreign investment commitment, signalling international confidence in Nigeria’s economic potential under his leadership. To further reinforce his diplomatic agenda, Tinubu’s visits to the Middle East, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, aimed at fortifying bilateral relationships and attracting additional investments, illustrated a comprehensive strategy to integrate Nigeria more deeply into the global economic system. In a series of tweets made in April 2024, alongside a review on NTA news of Tinubu’s one year in office, the minister of foreign affairs, Yusuf Tuggar, justified Tinubu’s approach to foreign diplomacy as a necessary commitment to economic restructuring and stability, which is needed to secure the confidence of international investors and stakeholders, thereby positioning Nigeria as a pivotal player in the global economic arena. Similarly, Tinubu’s supporters have lauded his approach as one which strategically places Nigeria in a position to gain the favour of international political powers and financial institutions, projecting Nigeria as a stable and attractive environment for investment.

However, as Mr Amele rightly observed, ‘What eventually becomes your foreign policy must translate from your domestic policies.’ This statement underscores the essential connection between internal governance and international relations. From its onset, Tinubu’s administration has faced significant foreign policy challenges. Elected as the chairperson of ECOWAS in July 2023 shortly after assuming office, Tinubu’s acceptance speech emphasized a commitment to democracy and governance. However, his resolve was quickly tested in July 2023 when a military junta led by the head of the presidential guard, Abdourahmane Tchiani, successfully overthrew the democratically elected president, Mohamed Bazoum. Tinubu’s initial strong condemnation and subsequent economic sanctions against Niger Republic highlighted his commitment to ECOWAS principles. Yet, the situation escalated, leading to the withdrawal of Niger Republic, Mali, and Burkina Faso from ECOWAS and the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States. The failure to resolve the Niger Republic crisis underscored a decline in Nigeria’s regional influence, and reflects poorly on Tinubu’s diplomatic efforts. This episode revealed the complexities of balancing regional stability with national interests and highlighted the limitations of immediate, hardline responses to political upheavals. According to Adewumi, the administration’s handling of the Niger Republic coup, with an initial hardline stance followed by a more pragmatic approach ‘betrayed the broader aim of fostering regional cooperation​​.’ This shift underscores the difficulties in maintaining consistent foreign policy principles while addressing immediate political crises.

Furthermore, the planned railway and the trans-Saharan gas pipeline projects illustrate Nigeria’s ambitious economic diplomacy. However, these initiatives have faced criticism from citizens, who question the rationale behind financial commitments to international ventures amid severe economic hardships at home. This critique is particularly sharp when considering Nigeria’s involvement in the ECOWAS crisis, where the promotion of democracy abroad seems contradictory given the nation’s own democratic deficiencies. The financial and strategic focus on supporting a war effort had sparked further discontent, reflecting a tension between Nigeria’s foreign policy objectives and its internal realities. This scenario underscores the challenge of balancing the 4D doctrine with domestic imperatives. The ECOWAS crisis exemplifies the need for more nuanced diplomatic strategies to reconcile Nigeria’s renewed foreign policy aspirations with its internal socio-economic challenges. Ultimately, the interplay between Nigeria’s domestic issues and the current administration’s identity crisis has significantly influenced its foreign policy decisions in the first year, highlighting the necessity for a coherent and integrated approach.